Polar Investment Counsel, Inc.

Independent Securities & Futures Brokers

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The Polar Letter

                                                                                                                                        April 2015


        THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM - PROBABLY

 “Based upon historical norms, the QE policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks have led to an overvaluation in the stock market where prices are two times higher than they should be.”    

John Hussman – November 2014


 

In a letter published late last year, (link to president’s corner) we opined most portfolios should reduce positions, hedge remaining positions, or utilize protective stop loss orders. The past year has seen a very flat equity market here in the US, in our view, courtesy of the Federal Reserve. However, conditions, which lead to our caution in the first place, have only worsened.

 Since 1994, the aggregate balance sheet(s) of the world’s central banks has expanded by ten times, rising from just over two trillion dollars to twenty one trillion dollars. This is not some sort of situation, which is temporarily out of control; instead, it represents a significant period of monetary insanity!

 In just the past eleven years, public debt here in the US has increased from about $4.2 trillion to nearly $19 trillion.  To put that another way, that is an increase from about $14,500 per person to about $50,000 per person.  Put it yet another way, an increase about 36% of gross domestic product to about 95% of gross domestic product.   What of corporate and personal debt? Well you probably do not want to know.  Naturally, this is not sustainable.

 

   Michael C. Jordan

   President

   Professional Biography


Note: The views expressed above are those of Michael C. Jordan and not that of PICI.

The material presented is based upon information believed to be accurate, but not guaranteed.


 

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The Polar Letter

 

January 2016

 

July 2015

April 2015

 

December 2014

November 2014

August 2014

March 2014

 

06-06-2011

 

01-13-2012

 

 


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